Regime shifts are abrupt, large, and difficult-to-reverse changes in ecosystems (or social-ecological systems). While abrupt, they are not always instantaneous: there is always a lag between the critical threshold being passed and the regime shift occurring. Sometimes this delay can large enough to take management action before the regime shift occurs. This project will study regime shift lag mathematically. Possible tasks include deriving analytical expressions for the approximate magnitude of the lag, obtaining rules of thumb for how long the lag is likely to be in different systems, or studying how the lag can be predicted from empirical time series observations.
Candidates should have mathematical modelling experience such as from theoretical ecology, physics, or engineering.
For more information about this potential research topic or activity, or to discuss any related research area, please contact the supervisor.