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My research involves developing Bayesian network models for predicting the ecological health of river systems. Fish assemblages will be used as indicators of ecological health. The models will be based on selected sub-catchments in the Murray Darling Basin. The research will establish the important catchment and in-stream processes that affect fish habitat, and thus fish abundance and diversity. The influence of spatial and temporal scales will also be considered.
The purpose of the models is to assist resource managers in the catchment management process by providing a means to identify key risks to ecological health. Various system changes, including management strategies, modifications in flow regime and climate change can be tested by running scenarios, and examining the predicted outcome on the indicators of ecological health. Resource managers will be able to effectively prioritise management actions based on sound understanding of the mechanisms through which physical and chemical factors influence stream ecosystems.
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