Dr Ian Davies

Visiting Fellow

Ian's research interests concern the simulation of ecosystems and development of associated software. His major focus has been fire-regime modelling and he is a member of an international group of landscape-scale wildland fire modellers, co-led by Assoc. Prof. Geoff Cary (Fenner School, ANU), Bob Keane (US Forest Service) and Prof. Mike Flannigan (University of Alberta). Ian also has a strong interest in landscape genetics, particularly those landscapes subject to recurrent disturbance. His major collaborators in this field are Prof. Sam Banks (Charles Darwin University) and Assoc. Prof. Geoff Cary.

Together with Director of Research Jacques Gignoux (Sorbonne University, Faculty of Sciences, Paris), Ian is a major contributor to a software project to develop a framework for ecosystem modelling (3Worlds). 3Worlds conforms with Tansley's original concept of the ecosystem, arguably the fundamental unit of observation for ecologists. It provides a consistent framework within which to implement and test any simulation model a researcher might propose.

Broadly, our aims are four-fold:

1) to facilitate model comparison studies;

2) to provide a formal structure for understanding emergent properties of dynamic systems;

3) to determine the necessary amount of detail required to capture system behaviour; and,

4) to provide a facility to execute well-designed experiments that use simulation models.

These tasks can be very time consuming and error-prone. We hope this project will make such studies both quicker and more robust with regard to model design, experimental design and provenance. At this stage (April 2019), we plan to make this software freely available in 2020.

  • Fraser, C, Davies, I, Bryant, D et al 2018, 'How disturbance and dispersal influence intraspecific structure', Journal of Ecology, vol. 106, no. 3, pp. 1298-1306.
  • Banks SC, Davies ID, Cary GJ (2017) When can refuges mediate the genetic effects of fire regimes? A simulation study of the effects of topography and weather on neutral and adaptive genetic diversity in fire-prone landscapes. Molecular Ecology 26,4935-4954.
  • Banks, S.C., McBurney, L., Blair, D., Davies, I.D. and Lindenmayer, D.B., 2016. Where do animals come from during post-fire population recovery? Implications for ecological and genetic patterns in post-fire landscapes. Ecography, doi:1111/ecog.02251.
  • Cary GJ, Davies ID, Bradstock RA, Keane RE, Flannigan MD (2017) Importance of fuel treatment for limiting moderate-to-high intensity fire: findings from comparative fire modelling. Landscape Ecology 32: 1473-1483.
  • Gignoux, J, Cherel, G, Davies, I et al 2017, 'Emergence and complex systems: The contribution of dynamic graph theory', Ecological Complexity, vol. 31, no. -, pp. 34-49pp.
  • Davies ID, Cary GJ, Landguth EL, Lindenmayer DB, Banks SC. 2016.
    Implications of recurrent disturbance for genetic diversity.
    Ecology and Evolution, 6, 1181-1196.
  • Cary GJ, Keane RE, Flannigan MD, Davies ID, Li C, Parsons RA and participants in three international landscape-fire model comparisons (2015) What determines area burned in large landscapes? Insights from a decade of comparative landscape-fire modelling, Large Wildland Fires, ed. Keane, Robert E.; Jolly, Matt; Parsons, Russell; Riley, Karin, US Department of Agriculture, US, pp. 262-266.
  • Banks SC, Cary GJ, Smith A, Davies I, Driscoll D, Gill AM, Lindenmayer DB, Peakhall R. 2013. How does ecological disturbance influence genetic diversity? Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 28: 670-679.
  • Keane RE, Cary GJ, Flannigan MD et al. (2013) Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modelling. Ecological Modelling 266: 172-186.
  • Bradstock RA, Cary GJ, Davies I, Lindenmayer DB, Price OF. 2012. Wildfires, fuel treatment and risk mitigation in Australian eucalypt forests: Insights from landscape-scale simulation. Journal of Environmental Management, 105: 66-75.
  • Quetier, F, Lavorel, S, Liancourt, P et al 2011, 'Assessing long-term land-use legacies in subalpine grasslands by using a plant trait-based generic modelling framework', Plant Ecology and Diversity, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 391-402.
  • Gignoux, J, Davies, I, Flint, S et al 2011, 'The Ecosystem in Practice: Interest and Problems of an Old Definition for Constructing Ecological Models', Ecosystems, vol. 14, no. 7, pp. 1039-1054.
  • Midgley, G, Davies, I, Albert, C et al 2010, 'BioMove - an integrated platform simulating the dynamic response of species to environmental change', Ecography, vol. 33, no. 3, pp. 612-616.
  • Cary GJ, Flannigan MD, Keane RE, et al. (2009) Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: evidence from five landscape-fire-succession models. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18: 147-156.
  • Nightingale, J, Hill, M, Phinn, S et al 2008, 'Use of 3-PG and 3-PGS to simulate forest growth dynamics of Australian tropical rainforests II. An integrated system for modelling forest growth and scenario assessment within the wet tropics bioregion', Forest Ecology and Management, vol. 254, no. 2, pp. 122-133.
  • Albert, C, Thuiller, W, Lavorel, S et al 2008, 'Land-use change and subalpine tree dynamics: colonization of Larix decidua in French subalpine grasslands', Journal of Applied Ecology, vol. 45, pp. 659-669.
  • Nightingale, J, Hill, M, Phinn, S et al 2008, 'Use of 3-PG and 3-PGS to simulate forest growth dynamics of Australian tropical rainforests I. Parameterisation and calibration for old-growth, regenerating and plantation forests', Forest Ecology and Management, vol. 254, pp. 107-121.
  • Quetier, F, Lavorel, S, Thuiller, W et al 2007, 'Plant-Trait-Based Modeling Assessment of Ecosystem-Service Sensitivity to Land-Use Change', Ecological Applications, vol. 17, no. 8, pp. 2377-2386.
  • Keane RE, Cary GJ, Davies ID, Flannigan MD, et al. (2007) Understanding Global Fire Dynamics by Classifying and Comparing Spatial Models of Vegetation and Fire. In: Joseph G Canadell, Diane E Pataki, Louis F Pitelka (ed.), Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World, Springer, Germany, pp. 139-148.
  • Roxburgh, S & Davies, I 2006, 'COINS: an integrative modelling shell for carbon accounting and general ecological analysis', Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 359-374.
  • Lavorel, S, Quetier, F, Thebault, A et al 2006, 'Vulnerability to land use change of services provided by alpine landscapes', in Martin Price (ed.), Global Change in Mountain Regions, Sapiens Publishing, UK, pp. 215-216.
  • Lavorel, S, Quétier, F, Thebault, A et al 2006, 'Vulnerability to land use change of services provided by alpine landscapes', Open Science Conference on Global Change in Mountain Regions (GLOCHAMORE 2005), ed. Price M.F., Sapiens Publishing, Duncow, pp. 215-216.
  • Cary GJ, Keane RE, Gardner RH, Lavorel S, Flannigan MD, et al. (2006) Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather. Landscape Ecology 21: 121-137.
  • Grigulis, K, Lavorel, S, Davies, I et al 2005, 'Landscape-scale positive feedbacks between fire and expansion of the large tussock grass, Ampelodesmos mauritanica in Catalan shrublands', Global Change Biology, vol. 11, pp. 1042-1053.
  • Druckenbrod, D, Shugart, H & Davies, I 2005, 'Spatial pattern and process in forest stands within the Virginia piedmont', Journal of Vegetation Science, vol. 16, pp. 37-48.
  • Roxburgh, S, Barrett, D, Berry, S et al 2004, 'A critical overview of model estimates of net primary productivity for the Australian continent', Functional Plant Biology, vol. 31, pp. 1043-1059.
  • Keane RE, Cary GJ, Davies ID, et al. (2004) A classification of landscape fire succession models: Spatial simulations of fire and vegetation dynamics. Ecological Modelling 179: 3-27.
  • Cousins, S, Lavorel, S & Davies, I 2003, 'Modelling the effects of landscape pattern and grazing regimes on the persistence of plant species with high conservation value in grasslands in south eastern Sweden', Landscape Ecology, vol. 18, pp. 315-332.