Associate Professor Geoff Cary

Senior Fellow

Research

Geoff’s research interests include: landscape-scale simulation of fire management & climate change effects on fire regimes; fire ecology from genes to communities; house loss in wildland fire; and laboratory experimentation of fire behaviour. He co-leads, with Dr Bob Keane (US Forest Service) and Prof. Mike Flannigan (University of Alberta), an international group of landscape-scale wildland fire simulation modellers.

Geoff gave a keynote address, on fuel management & house loss, at the Wildland Fire Canada Conference (Kananaskis, 2012). He was an invited speaker at the 10th World Wilderness Congress (Salamanca, Spain, 2013), the International Association of Landscape Ecology World Congress (Portland, USA, 2015), Banff International Research Station fire management workshop (Banff, Canada, 2017), and the Bushfire Building Conference (Blue Mountains, Australia, 2017).

Teaching

Geoff teaches bushfire dynamics and management in ANU courses including ‘Fire in the Environment’ (Convenor), ‘Weather, Climate & Fire’ (Co-convenor), with contributions to 'Biodiversity Conservation', 'Environment & Society', 'Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation', 'Severe Weather', and 'Contemporary Perspectives in Environmental Science'. He supervises honours and graduate research scholars in diverse wildland fire topics (see below).

Service

Geoff is on the Editorial Advisory Committee, and an Associate Editor, for the International Journal of Wildland Fire. He was a Discipline Panel Member for the Excellence in Research for Australia 2015 ANU submission, and served on the NSW Parks & Wildlife Advisory Council. Geoff serves on the ANU WHS specialist Fieldwork Advisory Group, ANU Statistical Consulting Unit Advisory Committee, FSES Local Area Consultative Committee, and is a mentor in the CMBE Mentoring Program. He managed the PhD and MPhil program in the Fenner School as Associate Director for Higher Degree Research in 2010 and 2011.

  • Dixon KM, Cary GJ, Worboys GL, Gibbons P (2018) The disproportionate importance of long-unburned forests and woodlands for reptiles. Ecology and Evolution 8(22), 10952–10963.
  • Dixon KM, Cary GJ, Worboys GL, Seddon J, Gibbons G (2018) A comparison of fuel hazard in recently burned and long-unburned forests and woodlands. International Journal of Wildland Fire 27, 609-622.
  • Gibbons P, Gill AM, Shore N, Moritz MA, Dovers S, Cary GJ (2018) Options for reducing house-losses during wildfires without clearing trees and shrubs, Landscape and Urban Planning 174, 10-17.
  • Yebra M, Quan X, Riaño D, Rozas Larraondo P, van Dijk AIJM, Cary GJ (2018) A fuel moisture content and flammability monitoring methodology for continental Australia based on optical remote sensing. Remote Sensing of Environment 212, 260-272.
  • Eburn M & Cary GJ (2017) You own the fuel, but who owns the fire? International Journal of Wildland Fire 26, 999-1008.
  • Cary GJ, Davies ID, Bradstock RA, Keane RE, Flannigan MD (2017) Importance of fuel treatment for limiting moderate-to-high intensity fire: findings from comparative fire modelling. Landscape Ecology 32: 1473-1483.
  • Doherty MD, Gill AM, Cary GJ, Austin MP (2017) Seed viability of early maturing alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis subsp. delegatensis) in the Australian Alps, south-eastern Australia, and its implications for management under changing fire regimes. Australian Journal of Botany 65(7): 517-523.
  • Banks SC, Davies ID, Cary GJ (2017) When can refuges mediate the genetic effects of fire regimes? A simulation study of the effects of topography and weather on neutral and adaptive genetic diversity in fire-prone landscapes. Molecular Ecology 26,4935-4954.
  • Holgate CM, Van Dijk AIJM, Cary GJ, Yebra M (2017) Using alternative soil moisture estimates in the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 26(9), 806-819.
  • Sharples JJ, Cary GJ, Fox-Hughes P, Mooney S, Evans JP, Fletcher M-S, Fromm M, Grierson PF, Mcrae R, Baker P (2016) Natural hazards in Australia: extreme bushfire. Climatic Change 139: 85-99.
  • Zylstra P, Bradstock RA, Bedward M, Penman TD, Doherty MD, Weber RO, Gill AM, Cary GJ (2016) Biophysical mechanistic modelling quantifies the effects of plant traits on fire severity: Species, not surface fuel loads, determine flame dimensions in eucalypt forests. PLOS ONE (Public Library of Science) 11(8): e0160715.
  • Boer MM, Bowman DMJS, Murphy BP, Cary GJ, Cochrane MA, et al. (2016) Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes. Environmental Research Letters 11: 0652002.
  • Davies ID, Cary GJ, Landguth EL, Lindenmayer DB, Banks SC. 2016.
    Implications of recurrent disturbance for genetic diversity.
    Ecology and Evolution, 6, 1181-1196.
  • Mulvaney J, Sullivan AL, Cary GJ, Bishop G (2016) Repeatability of free-burning fire experiments using heterogeneous forest fuel beds in a combustion wind tunnel. International Journal of Wildland Fire 25: 445-455.
  • Cary GJ, Keane RE, Flannigan MD, Davies ID, Li C, Parsons RA and participants in three international landscape-fire model comparisons (2015) What determines area burned in large landscapes? Insights from a decade of comparative landscape-fire modelling, Large Wildland Fires, ed. Keane, Robert E.; Jolly, Matt; Parsons, Russell; Riley, Karin, US Department of Agriculture, US, pp. 262-266.
  • Hall J, Ellis PF, Cary GJ, Bishop G, Sullivan AL (2015) Long-distance spotting potential of bark strips of a ribbon gum (Eucalyptus viminalis). International Journal of Wildland Fire 24: 1109-1117
  • Yebra M, Marselis S, van Dijk A, Cary G and Chen Y (2015) Using
    LiDAR for forest and fuel structure mapping: options, benefits, requirements
    and costs. Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC, Australia.
  • Clayton H, Mylek MR, Schirmer J, Cary GJ, Dovers SR (2014) Exploring the use of economic evaluation in Australian wildland fire management decision-making. International Journal of Wildland Fire 23: 555-566.
  • Gill, M & Cary, G (2014) Landscape fires. In: Lindenmayer, D., Dovers, S., Morton, S. (ed.),Ten Commitments Revisited: Securing Australia's Future Environment, CSIRO Publishing, Australia, pp. 281-287.
  • Milne M, Clayton H, Dovers S, Cary GJ (2014) Evaluating benefits and costs of wildland fires: Critical review and future applications. Environmental Hazards 13: 114-132.
  • Banks SC, Cary GJ, Smith A, Davies I, Driscoll D, Gill AM, Lindenmayer DB, Peakhall R. 2013. How does ecological disturbance influence genetic diversity? Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 28: 670-679.
  • Bowman DMJS, Murphy BP, Boer MM, Bradstock RA, Cary GJ, et al. (2013) Forest fire management, climate change and the risk of catastrophic carbon losses. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 11: 66-68.
  • Keane RE, Cary GJ, Flannigan MD et al. (2013) Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modelling. Ecological Modelling 266: 172-186.
  • King KJ, Cary GJ, Bradstock RA, Marsden-Smedley JB (2013) Contrasting fire regimes response to climate and management: insights from two Australian ecosystems. Global Change Biology 19: 1223-1235.
  • Leavesley AJ & Cary GJ (2013) The Effect of Patch Area on Birds in Central Australian Mulga (Acacia aneura) Woodland of Different Times-since-fire. Pacific Conservation Biology 19: 28-38.
  • McWethy DB, Higuera PE, Whitlock C, Veblen TT, Bowman DMJS, Cary GJ, Haberle SG, Keane RE, Maxwell BD, McGlone MS, Perry GLW, Wilmshurst JM, Holz A, Tepley AJ (2013) A conceptual framework for predicting temperate ecosystem sensitivity to human impacts on fire regimes. Global Ecology and Biogeography 22: 900-912.
  • Murphy BP, Bradstock RA, Boer MM, Carter J, Cary GJ, et al. (2013) Fire regimes of Australia: A pyrogeographic model system. Journal of Biogeography 40: 1048-1058.
  • Gill, AM, Stephens, SL & Cary, GJ (2013) The worldwide "wildfire" problem. Ecological Applications 23: 438-454.
  • Williams RJ, Bradstock RA, Cary GJ, Dovey L, et al. (2013) Current fire regimes, impacts and the likely changes - VII: Australian fire regimes under climate change: impacts, risks and mitigation in Goldammer, J.G. (ed.), Vegetation Fires and Global Change: Challenges for Concerted International Action. A White Paper directed to the United Nations and International Organizations, Kessel Publishing House, Germany, pp. 133-142.
  • Cary GJ, Bradstock RA, Gill AM, Williams RJ (2012) Global change and fire regimes in Australia. In: Ross A Bradstock, A. Malcolm Gill and Richard Williams (eds.), Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biopdiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World, CSIRO Publishing, Australia, pp. 149-169.
  • Bradstock RA, Cary GJ, Davies I, Lindenmayer DB, Price OF. 2012. Wildfires, fuel treatment and risk mitigation in Australian eucalypt forests: Insights from landscape-scale simulation. Journal of Environmental Management, 105: 66-75.
  • Cary G, Collett E, Gill M, Clayton H, Dovers D (2012) Future scenarios for Australian bushfires: Report on a Bushfire CRC workshop. Australian Journal of Emergency Management 27: 34-40.
  • Bradstock RA, Boer MM, Cary GJ, et al. (2012) Modelling the potential for prescribed burning to mitigate carbon emissions from wildfires in fire-prone forests of Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 21: 629-639
  • Gibbons P, Van Bommel L, Gill AM, Cary GJ, et al. 2012. Land management practices associated with house loss in wildfires. PLoS ONE, 7: e2912.
  • King KJ, Cary GJ, Gill AM, Moore AD (2012) Implications of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 for grassland fire in south-east Australia: insights using the GRAZPLAN grassland simulation model. International Journal of Wildland Fire 21: 695-708.
  • Vivian LM & Cary GJ (2012) Relationship between leaf traits and fire-response strategies in shrub species of a mountainous region of south-eastern Australia. Annals of Botany 109: 197-208.
  • Williams RJ, Bradstock RA, Barrett D, Beringer J, Boer MM, Cary GJ, Cook GD, Gill AM, Hutley LBW, Keith H, Maier S, Meyer CP, Price O, Roxburgh S and Jeremy Russell-Smith J (2012) Fire regimes and carbon in Australian vegetation. In Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World (Bradstock RA, Williams RJ, Gill AM Eds.). pp. 273-291. CSIRO Publishers, Melbourne
  • Gill M & Cary G (2012) Socially Disastrous Landscape Fires in South-eastern Australia: Impacts, Responses, Implications. In: Douglas Paton, Fantina Tedim (eds.), Wildfire and Community - Facilitating Preparedness and Resilience, Charles C Thomas Publisher Ltd, Springfield, Illinois, USA, pp. 14-32.
  • Penman TD, Christie FJ, Andersen AN, Bradstock RA, Cary GJ, et al. (2011) Prescribed burning: how can it work to conserve the things we value? International Journal of Wildland Fire 20: 721-733.
  • Keane RE, Cary GJ, Flannigan MD (2011) Challenges and Needs in Fire Management: A Landscape Simulation Modeling Perspective In: Chao Li, Raffaele Lafortezza, Jiquan Chen (ed.), Landscape Ecology in Forest Management and Conservation, Springer, Berlin, pp. 75-98.
  • King KJ, de Ligt RM, Cary GJ (2011) Fire and carbon dynamics under climate change in south-eastern Australia: Insights from FullCAM and FIRESCAPE modelling. International Journal of Wildland Fire 20: 563-577.
  • Vivian LM, Doherty MD, Cary GJ (2010) Classifying the fire-responses of plants: How reliable are species-level classifications? Austral Ecology 35: 264-273.
  • Leavesley AJ, Cary GJ, Edwards GP, Gill AM (2010) The effect of fire on birds of mulga woodland in arid central Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19: 949-960.
  • Driscoll DA, Lindenmayer DB, Bennett AF, Bode M, Bradstock RA, Cary GJ, et al. 2010. Fire management for biodiversity conservation: Key research questions and our capacity to answer them. Biological Conservation, 143: 1928-1939.
  • Driscoll DA, Lindenmayer DB, Bennett AF, Bode M, Bradstock RA, Cary GJ, et al. 2010.Resolving conflicts in fire management using decision theory: asset-protection versus biodiversity conservation. Conservation Letters, 3: 215-223.
  • Cary GJ, Flannigan MD, Keane RE, et al. (2009) Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: evidence from five landscape-fire-succession models. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18: 147-156.
  • King K, De Ligt R, Cary G (2009) Changes in fire and carbon dynamics for projected future climates in the south eastern Australian high country. International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM 2009), ed. Anderssen, R.S., R.D. Braddock and L.T.H. Newham, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc., Australia, pp. 2569-2575.
  • Gardner RH, Jopp F, Cary GJ, Verburg PH (2008) World congress highlights need for action. Landscape Ecology 23: 1-2.
  • Vivian LM, Cary GJ, Bradstock RA, Gill AM (2008) Influence of fire severity on the regeneration, recruitment and distribution of eucalypts in the Cotter River Catchment, Australian Capital Territory. Austral Ecology 33: 55-67.
  • King KJ, Bradstock RA, Cary GJ, Chapman J, Marsden-Smedley JB (2008) The relative importance of fine-scale fuel mosaics on reducing fire risk in south-west Tasmania, Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17: 421-430.
  • Keane RE, Cary GJ, Davies ID, Flannigan MD, et al. (2007) Understanding Global Fire Dynamics by Classifying and Comparing Spatial Models of Vegetation and Fire. In: Joseph G Canadell, Diane E Pataki, Louis F Pitelka (ed.), Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World, Springer, Germany, pp. 139-148.
  • Cary GJ, Keane RE, Gardner RH, Lavorel S, Flannigan MD, et al. (2006) Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather. Landscape Ecology 21: 121-137.
  • King KJ, Cary GJ, Bradstock RA, Chapman J, Pyrke A, Marsden-Smedley JB (2006) Simulation of prescribed burning strategies in south-west Tasmania, Australia: effects on unplanned fires, fire regimes, and ecological management values. International Journal of Wildland Fire 15: 527-540.
  • Cary G (2005) Modelling applications of the Australian forest fire danger index. NRIFD Symposium 2005, ed. Kohyu Satoh, Research Centre for Fire and Disasters, Tokyo.
  • Cary G (2005) Climate change and bushfire incidence. Clean Air Forum 2004, NSW Department of Environment and Conservation, Sydney, pp. 15-18.
  • Cary GJ (2005) Research priorities arising from the 2002-2003 bushfire season in south-eastern Australia. Australian Forestry 68: 104-111.
  • Keane RE, Cary GJ, Davies ID, et al. (2004) A classification of landscape fire succession models: Spatial simulations of fire and vegetation dynamics. Ecological Modelling 179: 3-27.
  • Dovers S, Cary G, Lindenmayer D (2004) Fire research and policy priorities: insights from the 2003 national fire forum. Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 19, 76-84.
  • Cary G (2004) Importance of climate change for fire regimes. Bushfire in a Changing Environment: New Directions in Management, ed. Angela Baker, Matthew Sparks, Bruce Diekman, Sian Edmondson, Matthew Misdale, An, Nature Conservation Council NSW Inc, Sydney, pp. 155-161.
  • King K, Bradstock R, Cary G, et al. (2004) Optimal risk-management of bushfires in a changing world. Bushfire CRC Conference 2004, Bushfire CRC, Australia, p. 2.
  • Cary G, Lindenmayer D & Dovers S. 2003 Research and policy priorities: A synthesis. In: Cary, G., Lindenmayer, D., and Dovers, S. (ed.), Australia Burning: Fire Ecology, Policy and Management Issues, CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne, pp. 252-265.
  • Cary G, Lindenmayer D & Dovers S, eds. (2003) Australia Burning: Fire Ecology, Policy and Management Issues, CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne.
  • Cary G (2003) Fire behaviour and fire regime science: a discussion summary. In: Cary, G., Lindenmayer, D., and Dovers, S. (ed.), Australia burning: fire ecology, policy and management issues, CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne, pp. 97-102.
  • Cary G (2003) Australia burning: a discussion summary. In: Cary, G., Lindenmayer, D., and Dovers, S. (ed.), Australia burning: fire ecology, policy and management issues, CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne, pp. 248-251.
  • Cary G (2003) Sensitivity of Fire Regimes to Climate Change. Climate Impacts on Australia's Natural Resources: Current and Future Challenges, ed. Qld Govt, Standing Committee on Natural Resource Management, QLD, pp. 33-35.
  • Keane RE, Cary GJ, Parsons R (2003) Using simulation to map fire regimes: an evaluation of approaches, strategies, and limitations. International Journal of Wildland Fire 12: 309-322.
  • Cary G, Bradstock R (2003) Sensitivity of fire regimes to management. In: Cary, G., Lindenmayer, D., and Dovers, S. (ed.), Australia burning: fire ecology, policy and management issues, CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne, pp. 65-81.
  • Cary G (2002) Importance of a changing climate for fire regimes in Australia. In: Bradstock, R.A., Williams, Jann E., and Gill, Malcolm A. (ed.), Flammable Australia: The Fire Regimes and Biodiversity of a Continent, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 26-46.
  • McCarthy M & Cary G (2002) Fire regimes in landscapes: models and realities. In: Bradstock, R.A., Williams, Jann E., and Gill, Malcolm A. (ed.), Flammable Australia: The Fire Regimes and Biodiversity of a Continent, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 77-93.
  • Richards R, Cary G, Bradstock R (2001) The sensitivity of snow gum to fire scarring in relation to Aboriginal landscape burning. Australasian Bushfire Conference 2001, ed. Pearce, G. and Lester, L., New Zealand Forest Research Institute Ltd, Rotorua, NZ, pp. 285-292.
  • Bradstock R, Cary G (2001) What governs fire regimes ?. Australasian Bushfire Conference 2001, ed. Pearce, G. and Lester, L., New Zealand Forest Research Institute Ltd, Rotorua, NZ, pp. 182-189.
  • Cary G (2000) What technology can do. Fire! The Australian Experience, National Academies Forum, Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering, Carlton, Victoria, pp. 79-91.
  • Cary G (1999) Simulating fire regimes with FIRESCAPE. Landscape Fire Modelling Workshop, ed. Hawkes, B.C.; Flannigan, M.D., Canadian Forest Service, Canada, pp. 32-33.

Geoff teaches bushfire dynamics and management in ANU courses including ‘Fire in the Environment (Convenor), ‘Weather, Climate & Fire’ (Co-convenor), with contributions to 'Biodiversity Conservation', 'Environment & Society', 'Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation', 'Severe Weather', and 'Contemporary Perspectives in Environmental Science'. He supervises honours and graduate research scholars in diverse wildland fire topics.