We respond to the question: Has human well-being peaked? We use three different, but not independent, time-series measures of human well-being at a national level; (1) Gross Domestic product (GDP) per capita using purchasing power parity (a measure of the average opportunity set of a human population); Life Expectancy (a measure of overall human health); and the Cantril Happiness Ladder (a stated measure of average well-being). Using historical national-level data we: (1) estimate the likely peaks in GDP per capita and Life Expectancy by country and when these peaks occur; (2) individual country-level correlations between GDP per capita and Life Expectancy and also between GDP per capita and Happiness; (3) the association between GDP per capita peak levels and when the peaks occur with projected economic impacts of climate change in 2050. Our findings show: (1) increasing divergence between rich countries and middle-income and poor countries; (2) a small number of countries are 'flourishing' with high levels of human well-being; (3) a large number, and that includes most of the word's population, of countries are  'languishing' with relatively low levels of human well-being which have already peaked or will soon peak and (4) a strong correlation between countries that are languishing and the countries that are projected to suffer the highest proportional economic costs by 2050 as a result of climate change.

About the Speaker

Quentin Grafton is Professor of Economics, Chairholder UNESCO Chair in Water Economics and Transboundary Water Governance, and an Australian Laureate Fellow (2020-25). He is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia and a former President (2017-18) of the Australasian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society. He is the recipient of several awards for his water-related  research including the Eureka Science Prize for Water Research and Innovation. He founded and is the Convenor of the Water Justice Hub and is the Executive Editor of the Global Water Forum. His work is focused on understanding the state of the world and what we can collectively do to promote a sustainable and just pathway from the present to the future.