Accelerating anthropogenic climate change fundamentally challenges the stationarity paradigm that underpins contemporary Western environmental governance systems. While foresight processes—including scenario planning and futures-thinking—offer systematic approaches to anticipate uncertain futures, their integration into environmental governance remains theoretically and empirically underdeveloped. This research investigates the dimensions of anticipatory governance that enable environmental decision-makers to navigate ecological transformation, interrogating the politics of anticipation and cross-scale governance dynamics.

The research employs mixed methods: a survey of regional natural resource management organisations across Australia, and an in-depth case study examining foresight application in the Ramsar-listed Coorong wetlands, South Australia. A novel multi-dimensional conceptual framework is developed, delineating five intersecting dimensions of anticipatory governance: foresight processes, anticipatory knowledge, anticipatory capacities, institutional configurations, and steering mechanisms. The thesis argues that anticipatory environmental governance is a dynamic process, comprising multiple dimensions that develop at varying paces and sometimes in opposite or conflicting directions. The research contributes to anticipatory governance scholarship while providing actionable frameworks for practitioners navigating transforming social-ecological systems.

About the Speaker

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Carla is a PhD Candidate at the Fenner School and ANU Institute for Water Futures, investigating foresight processes in contexts of anthropogenic climate change and ecosystem transformation. Her research examines how environmental governance can navigate ecological change through futures-thinking approaches, towards anticipatory governance.

At her other job, Carla leads the Climate Adaptation for Nature Initiative within the ACT Government Office of Nature Conservation. Prior to her PhD, Carla managed applied research projects on multi-level water governance in the Baltic Sea Region. She holds an interdisciplinary Master's degree from Stockholm University.