A child plays in a water fountain

Skillful heat related mortality forecasting during recent deadly European summers

Europe is now a heatwave hotspot with broken temperature records leading to significant heat-related deaths in recent years. Projections indicate such summers may become common, highlighting the urgent need for improved heat-health warning systems. This study evaluates the effectiveness of temperature-related mortality forecasts for 2022 and 2023, finding them crucial for adapting to increasing temperatures and mitigating health impacts.

schedule Date & time
14 Nov 2024 1:00pm - 14 Nov 2024 2:00pm
person Speaker
Emma Holmberg
contact_support Contact
Fenner Communications
fses.communications@anu.edu.au

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Description

Europe has been identified as a heatwave hotspot, with numerous temperature records having been broken in recent summers and roughly 60,000 and 50,000 heat-related deaths occurring in the summers of 2022 and 2023, respectively. With recent summers, like that of 2022, projected to become the new norm, there is a pressing need to further develop heat-health warning systems to help society adapt to a warming climate. Here, we evaluate the skill of daily temperature related mortality forecasts, which can inform heat-warning systems, for the summers of 2022 and 2023. For most parts of Europe, enhanced temperature related mortality forecasts were associated with milder temperatures, close to the minimum mortality temperature. However, some of the hottest regions in Europe showed increased predictability associated with higher temperatures, suggesting that mortality forecasts can provide valuable information in regions also associated with high levels of temperature related mortality.
 

About the Speaker

Portrait of Emma Holmberg taken outside with bushes and grass in the background

Emma is in her final year of a PhD at Uppsala University in Sweden, where she works on the predictability of European temperature extremes and their health impacts. Emma grew up in Tasmania and completed her bachelor of science at UTas. She then moved to Germany to pursue a masters of mathematics at T.U. Munich, during which she began working in the re-insurance sector developing risk models for natural catastrophes. In her spare time she enjoys being in all types of nature from the Tasmanian wilderness to the Swedish forests.

Location

Forestry Lecture Theatre and via Zoom