Should we let the cat out of the bag?

Persecution and habitat destruction drove the European wildcat (Felis silvestris silvestris) to extinction in England, where it was last recorded in the 1850s in Northumberland on the English–Scottish border.

Today, this border region contains Kielder Forest, England’s largest forest, which is managed by Forestry England. As part of their Forest Wilding Programme for landscape-scale nature recovery, Forestry England is now exploring whether Kielder Forest could support the wildcat’s return. In this seminar, Dr Wilson will present the biological and ecological feasibility study she and the Coexistence Conservation Lab (CCL) conducted for this landmark project.

Using wildcat occurrence records from across the species’ range, she modelled habitat suitability for several spatial extents and resolutions to test how these modelling decisions affect predicted habitat and carrying capacity. She then simulated population viability for three founder cohorts under three adult mortality rates. These approaches predicted substantially more potential habitat and a higher carrying capacity across Kielder and the Borders than previous broad-scale modelling. Dr Wilson will discuss what these predictions can and cannot tell us, and what needs to happen next to test them on the ground. Through this work, CCL is developing a staged, evidence-based model for restoring carnivores to human-shaped landscapes. 
 

About the speaker

Dr Belinda Wilson is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in conservation ecology with the Coexistence Conservation Lab. Her background in research, consultancy, and environmental regulation underpins her focus on integrating fundamental science with management. Her research focuses on restoring ecosystems through the translocation and management of ecologically influential species, from Mulligans Flat Woodland Sanctuary on the edge of Canberra to Kielder Forest in northern England. She works with land managers across the translocation process, from feasibility assessment to monitoring design. She applies habitat suitability modelling, population viability analysis, spatially explicit capture–recapture, and more to examine animal behaviour, community interactions, and ecosystem processes, and to inform adaptive management that can strengthen ecosystem resilience.